I Will Win Crimea
I will win Crimea.
On November 20, 2024, President Zelensky, in an interview with Fox News, stated that Crimea could not be won militarily with the forces Ukraine currently has at hand.
This statement is in error.
I can win Crimea.
Crimea is not currently a strategic nor a pivotal point in the current war.
Russia has withdrawn troops from Crimea to fight in other areas along the front.
Russian strategic thought does not now include Crimea; Donbas, Kharkiv, Hrodivka, Chasiv Yar and the Kursk Salient are all fully occupying the Russian generals minds.
Crimea is presently not at the top of the Russian generals list of areas to worry about.
But it could be.
Although defenses, fortifications and natural topography of Crimea pose a challenging tactical situation, the strategic position is much less challenging and far easier to surmount.
“Small forces striking ‘out of the blue’ can have an effect out of all proportion to their size.”
This statement by B. H. Liddell Hart expresses the situation in Crimea perfectly.
Direct assaults against Crimea by Any size force would meet with disaster; the embedded Russian troops, the built-up defenses, the array of fortified positions would quickly decimate any attacking force.
So, don’t.
Go around.
Isolate the command structures.
Neutralize the defenses, collapse the infrastructure.
These objectives can all be accomplished with elite, small units strategically positioned across the area.
And, in this case, the Crimean “theater” is not just the peninsula of Crimea, but includes the southern regions of Ukraine, the Krasnodar-Rostov area of Russia and even much of the Black Sea.
Collapsing the infrastructure means collapsing the communications nodes, assembly points and logistics channels by which Russia supplies its forces in the area.
Defeating these positions means the Russian positions within Crimea become untenable for Russia to maintain — you don’t attack the body of troops within Crimea, you attack the infrastructure and supplies that hold that body together.
Collapse the command structure and that body cannot fight.
Several thousand Ukrainian troops within Crimea can achieve the job. (Less than 10,000)
Casualties would number up to 3,000 KIA for Ukraine. But the job would be done and Crimea would return to Ukrainian control.
A probable effect of reclaiming Crimea: Russian forces in southern Ukraine would be surrounded; it is likely they will either withdraw or Russia will seek a negotiated settlement; reclaiming Crimea could end the war.
Yes, I have been purposefully vague on the specifics of defeating Russia in Crimea without a big fight.
But it can be done.
I have a 100% success rate to date.
My “Plans of Battle” which have been executed on the battlefield or implemented in wargames have always been successful — 100% of the time.
I do not plan on changing that now.
Ask me how to win Crimea.
I can do it.
